U.S. trade policy has entered 2025 with heavy turbulence, and owner-operators feel the effects on freight availability and rates. A series of new and ongoing tariffs – spanning steel, consumer goods, agriculture, electronics, and more – are rippling through supply chains. The result is a mix of surging front-loaded imports, shifting freight lanes, and an uncertain rate environment. We’ll break down how current tariff policies are influencing load volumes & market rates, and what owner-operators can do to stay ahead of the curve.

2025 Tariff Snapshot

U.S. tariff policy in 2025 can only be described as aggressive. In early 2025, the U.S. imposed steep duties on key materials, notably a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum with no country exemptions. This move reinstated and expanded the metal tariffs from a few years ago, provoking retaliation from trade partners. At the same time, the U.S. broadened tariffs on consumer and industrial goods, especially imports from China. By April, tariff rates on Chinese products had soared to historic highs, with reports of triple-digit duty rates (over 100% in some cases) in a spiraling trade war.

Such high trade tensions with China and others have made headlines, but what matters to carriers is how these policies affect freight. Key sectors have been targeted:

• Manufacturing Inputs (Steel & Aluminum): The blanket 25% metal tariffs raise costs for U.S. factories. While domestic steel producers cheer the protection, downstream manufacturers (e.g., auto and equipment makers) face pricier inputs, which could mean fewer materials moving if production slows or more demand for domestically made steel if imports drop.
• Consumer Goods & Electronics: The expanded tariffs on Chinese-origin consumer products and electronics have jacked up import costs. Shippers rushed to import goods ahead of tariff hikes (as we’ll discuss later), but higher prices may eventually temper consumer demand. Retailers, however, remain cautiously optimistic – the National Retail Federation forecasts 2025 retail sales to grow ~3% despite the trade war, thanks to strong employment and wages. In other words, Americans are still buying, but sourcing is shifting. Big-box inventory that used to ship from Chinese suppliers might now come via other Asian countries or Mexico to dodge tariffs, altering trucking routes.
• Agriculture: U.S. farmers have been caught in the crossfire of retaliatory tariffs. China, for instance, responded to U.S. levies with punishing duties on American exports, adding an extra 34% tariff on all U.S. goods (on top of previous tariffs). Analysts say this essentially shuts U.S. agriculture out of China, as commodities like soybeans or sorghum become too expensive for Chinese buyers. It’s a one-two punch: imports of foreign ag goods may rise in price (e.g., tariffs on Canadian dairy or European foods), while exports of U.S. crops face foreign barriers. For owner-operators, that can mean fewer crop export loads heading to ports or border crossings.
• High-Tech and Other Sectors: The tech supply chain is also in flux. Tariffs and trade curbs extend to components like semiconductors and rare earth materials. For example, China not only slapped tariffs on U.S. goods but also restricted exports of rare earth minerals crucial for electronics. This could slow down production of electronics or EV batteries in the U.S., indirectly affecting flatbed and specialized freight that hauls those inputs and outputs. Likewise, any new tariffs on automotive parts or other consumer products can suddenly alter freight flows. In short, volatility is touching just about every corner of trucking freight.

Rates and Equipment Segments

The overall freight market in 2025 has been soft – many call it a “freight recession” – and tariffs add drag. However, the impact on rates per mile is not uniform across segments. 

• Dry Van: Tariff-induced import swings have arguably hit dry van freight the hardest. With big-box retail goods in flux, the dry van spot rate sank to multi-year lows in Q1 2025. By mid-April, van spot rates were at their lowest since April 2024. Elevated fuel costs and abundant capacity (after carriers built up during the 2021 boom) mean van rates haven’t had much lift, even with some inventory restocking. If consumer goods imports stagnate or if tariffs push more freight to intermodal, van operators will continue to feel margin pressure. On the contract side, retailers and brokers are also pointing to excess truck capacity to keep contract rates down. Essentially, lackluster volume + too many trucks = weak van rates. Tariffs exacerbate the volume side of that equation.
• Refrigerated (Reefer): The picture for reefers is mixed. Food and produce are necessities, but tariffs have touched this sector too (for example, China’s retaliation included certain food products, and the U.S. considered seasonal produce tariffs). Early 2025 brought some seasonal uptrend. Still, agricultural uncertainty looms. If exports of proteins or dairy get curtailed by foreign tariffs, those commodities might flood the domestic market, potentially increasing the number of reefers moving food inland instead of to ports. On the import side, higher costs for imported foods could mean more sourcing from domestic producers or closer countries. One positive sign is that Americans are still spending on groceries and food service, so reefer demand domestically is steady. However, owner-ops with reefers should watch export-related lanes (meat to ports, etc.) and border produce (like winter produce from Mexico) for any slowdown if trade spats worsen. Thus far, reefers have avoided the steep downturn that dry van has seen.
• Flatbed: Interestingly, flatbed carriers have gotten a recent boost, in part due to the tariff situation. Data from DAT shows flatbed rates climbed for six consecutive weeks through March, reaching their highest seasonal start in years. By late March, spot flatbed averages were up to ~$2.13/mile, a notable jump. A combination of tariff-driven stockpiling and spring demand is driving this. Steel and lumber shippers frantically moved product before new duties kicked in, creating extra flatbed loads.

Additionally, U.S. infrastructure projects and the construction season are ramping up, keeping flatbeds busy. Another factor is capacity: a lot of small flatbed carriers exited in the past year (due to high costs and low rates in 2024), so the flatbed sector’s capacity is tighter, amplifying the impact of any demand uptick. Owner-operators with flatbed rigs might find this a silver lining – if you can handle steel coils, lumber, or machinery, there are pockets of strong demand and improving rates. Tariffs on imported building materials (like the 25% on steel, and potential lumber trade actions) mean more business for domestic mills, which translates into more intra-U.S. loads of raw and finished construction materials. In the short term, many flatbed hauls are coming from warehouses to job sites as stockpiled inventory is now deployed. The catch is what happens when the backlog is cleared – so enjoy the rate bump now, but stay prepared for a potential flattening later in the year if volumes normalize.

In short, the rate environment in 2025 is a mixed bag. Owner-operators should be ready to ride these waves, perhaps even switching trailer types or commodities if an opportunity arises.

Strategies for Operators Amid Trade Volatility

No single trucker can alter international trade policy, but owner-operators can control how they respond. In a volatile market, the nimble survive. Here are some practical tips for small carriers to weather the tariff storm:

• Diversify Your Freight Mix: Don’t put all your hauls in one basket. If you’re heavily reliant on, say, port container drays that have slowed down, consider branching into other segments. Many experts suggest diversifying freight types to cushion against any sector's downturns. The idea is to be able to chase opportunity – having multiple load sources (ports, spot market, direct customers in different industries) can smooth out the dips.
• Sharpen Your Cost Management: Controlling costs is paramount when revenue is less predictable. Owner-operators should double down on fuel efficiency, deadhead reduction, and maintenance. Plan routes carefully to avoid unnecessary miles or expensive fuel states. With tariffs driving parts prices up, preventive maintenance is your friend – a well-maintained older truck may save you from needing an overpriced new one. Cutting costs doesn’t mean cutting corners, but do examine every expense (insurance, load board fees, etc.) for potential savings. Optimizing your operating ratio can help you survive low-rate periods.
• Be Ready to Adjust Routes and Lanes: Flexibility is key in 2025. You might need to run different lanes than last year to find the freight. Don’t be afraid to venture into new regions if data shows freight there is paying better. The motto is “go where the freight goes.”
• Leverage Technology and Load Platforms: In a volatile market, having quick access to many load opportunities is critical. Use apps like TrueNorth to see trends in real time. Some digital platforms can alert you when certain lane rates rise so you can jump in. Technology can also help optimize your operations, so stay plugged in and ready to book when a good opportunity appears.

By implementing these strategies, owner-operators can increase their resilience in the face of trade-related swings. 

Conclusion

The 2025 landscape for trucking is being rewritten by tariff after tariff. From port terminals to farm towns, the flow of freight is adjusting to a new trade reality. For owner-operators, this has introduced more uncertainty, but also new opportunities for those attentive and agile enough to seize them. Tariffs on steel, electronics, and other goods have caused short-term volume spurts followed by challenges in sustaining freight demand, effectively prolonging the trucking downturn. Markets hate uncertainty, and right now, both truckers and shippers are navigating plenty of it.

Yet, small motor carriers have always been adept at weathering storms and finding a way forward. It may require running harder (and smarter) for a bit less, or reinventing one’s lane portfolio, but the trucking community is nothing if not resilient. 

Remember, policy tides will eventually shift. Relief may come if trade agreements are struck or tariffs are rolled back. In the meantime, treat this period as a stress test for your business. The carriers who emerge on the other side will be those who balanced prudence with adaptability. Tariffs may be beyond your control, but how you adapt to the freight market they shape is your business – and as an owner-operator, running your business effectively in challenging times defines long-term success.

Stay safe out there, keep the wheels turning efficiently, and as always, keep an ear to the ground. The road ahead may twist with each trade policy tweet or announcement, but with the right strategy, you can navigate the twists and keep your trucking business moving forward.