In this post, we’ll take a look at the outlook for North American trucking rates in 2026. We’ll break down the current economic indicators (think inflation, consumer demand, manufacturing trends), what’s happening with trucking capacity and driver availability, and what industry experts (from FTR and DAT to FreightWaves and the ATA) predict. We’ll also explore key factors influencing rates – from fuel costs and sustainability regulations to e-commerce growth, supply chain shifts, and infrastructure investments. 

Let’s dive in and see what 2026 might hold for freight rates, in plain terms and with an eye on the road ahead.

Economic Backdrop: Inflation, Demand, and Manufacturing Trends

The broader economy sets the stage for freight demand. In 2024–2025, we saw inflation finally cool off from the highs of 2022, although it’s not completely back to normal. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s outlook and the CBO suggest inflation will continue easing – core PCE inflation is projected around 3.1% for 2025, falling toward ~2.4% by 2026. That’s good news for costs, but higher interest rates and cautious consumer spending have slowed economic growth. Real consumer demand is growing only modestly now. In fact, domestic demand growth decelerated to about 1.5% in Q1 2025 (and 1.1% in Q2) from roughly 3% in 2024. Consumers are spending, but not splurging, and they’re favoring services over goods, which means less growth in the physical products that need trucking.

Manufacturing has been another soft spot. After a strong start to 2024, many analysts called for a “manufacturing recession” due to output cuts in the industrial sector. Factory activity in goods-producing sectors has been tepid, which directly affects freight volumes (fewer parts and products to haul). Add in unpredictable trade policy (tariffs) and inventory gluts from the prior year, and you get a bumpy ride for freight-producing industries. 

Bottom line: the 2025 economy is growing, but slowly (~1–2% GDP growth), and that moderate growth is likely to carry into 2026. No booming consumer spree on the horizon, but no major recession either (fingers crossed). For freight, a slow-growing economy translates to gradual increases in shipment volumes at best.

Trucking Market Trends: Capacity, Rates, and Driver Availability

If you’ve been in logistics the past couple of years, you know the trucking market has been in a downcycle. Coming off the 2021 peak, we entered 2023–2024 with overcapacity – too many trucks chasing too little freight. That oversupply drove freight rates down hard – spot rates and even contract rates fell from their pandemic highs, giving shippers the upper hand through 2024.

The good news for carriers is that the worst may be past. Many of those small operators who entered during the boom have been exiting in 2023–25 because of the prolonged low rates. Higher operating costs and slim margins are pushing out the least efficient capacity. This capacity rationalization is slowly tightening the market. By late 2025, analysts expect supply and demand to move closer to equilibrium as excess trucks leave and freight volumes (even if modest) stabilize. In other words, the playing field between shippers and carriers should level out somewhat.

What about freight rates themselves? Coming into 2025, we’d been through roughly two years of low spot rates and loose capacity. DAT’s industry outlook (released at the end of 2024) predicted that after this long slump, trucking may finally start to tighten up in 2025, ushering in a new cycle of rising rates. They warned it won’t be a straight-line recovery – things like new tariffs, labor strikes, or weather events could cause detours – but overall, DAT saw truckload rates gradually rising at a pace similar to pre-pandemic norms by the second half of 2025. Indeed, as of the end of 2024 and into mid-2025, we saw some early signs of rate firming: for example, spot van rates in December 2024 were up ~4% year-over-year, and by mid-2025, national spot metrics were slightly above prior-year levels. It’s not a frenzy by any means, but it suggests the market has bottomed out.

Key takeaway: The trucking sector is emerging from a slump. Overcapacity is slowly easing, and many forecasts show the market turning the corner by 2025 into 2026. Shippers enjoyed low rates for a while, but carriers are poised to regain some pricing power as the scales even out. Driver supply will remain a structural challenge, lurking in the background of any long-term rate discussion.

Expert Forecasts: What Are Analysts Saying About 2026?

• FTR (Freight Transportation Research) – FTR’s models indicate that total truck freight volumes (loads) will be essentially flat through 2025 and 2026. In other words, they aren’t expecting a big surge in freight demand; volumes are projected to bump along at roughly the same level for the next couple of years. Given the tepid demand, FTR sees only modest rate increases on the horizon. So FTR is cautiously optimistic that the rate environment will improve (no further large declines), but they’re not predicting a boom by any stretch.
• DAT Freight & Analytics – DAT’s late-2024 Freight Focus outlook struck a more upbeat tone on rates. After two rough years, they predicted a “fresh business cycle” kicking off in 2025 with higher freight rates and a renewed appreciation for shipper-carrier relationships. DAT expected truckload rates to gradually rise in 2025 at a normal (pre-2020) pace, likely beginning by Q2 2025. They implied this uptrend would carry into 2026 as the cycle gains steam. However, DAT did caution that uncertainties – from a new presidential administration’s trade policies to global events and labor issues – could create some bumps. In short, DAT’s analysts are forecasting that 2025–2026 will see a return to a healthier pricing environment for carriers, provided we don’t hit a macroeconomic snag.
• C.H. Robinson (3PL Perspective) – The folks at C.H. Robinson also provide forecasts using their data. As of August 2025, C.H. Robinson projected that U.S. truckload spot rates will rise modestly in 2026, with their models calling for about a +2% year-over-year increase in both dry van and refrigerated rates. They explicitly noted there’s little evidence of a big freight volume surge next year – the main drivers for the rate increase are on the supply side (capacity leaving the market and carriers facing higher costs). In their view, as capacity tightens even a bit and carrier operating costs keep climbing (wages, insurance, maintenance, etc.), rates will edge up. Robinson’s takeaway for shippers: the truckload market will likely remain in balance, but carriers’ cost pressures will put steady upward influence on rates, especially during any seasonal disruptions.
• American Trucking Associations (ATA) – The ATA itself (through its economists and researchers) has indicated optimism for freight volumes increasing moderately in the coming years. For example, ATA’s Truck Tonnage Index showed some gains in late 2024, and ATA leadership often cites expectations of freight growth roughly tracking economic growth (a few percent per year). They also continue to warn of the driver shortage as a long-term factor that could constrain capacity and put upward pressure on rates. Additionally, the ATA’s industry chief has underscored the need for infrastructure improvements to keep freight moving efficiently as demand grows. Overall, ATA’s public forecasts suggest slow but steady growth in freight demand through 2025 and 2026, rather than any drastic swings.

In summary, most experts foresee 2026 as a year of recovery – or at least improvement – for trucking rates. The consensus is for modest rate increases (on the order of 2–5% year-over-year) as the market returns to balance. Crucially, all forecasts come with caveats: a lot depends on broader economic conditions. If inflation flares back up or if we hit a recession, all bets are off. 

But if the economy chugs along and supply/demand fundamentals play out as expected, carriers should finally have some leverage in 2026, and shippers will want to plan for slightly higher trucking costs than they’ve seen in the past couple of years.

Fuel Costs and Sustainability Regulations: A Double-Edged Sword

Fuel is one of the biggest operating costs in trucking, so any forecast has to consider where diesel prices are headed. And of course, we can’t talk about the future without touching on new environmental regulations pushing the industry toward cleaner equipment. Let’s break down both:

Fuel Prices Outlook 

The last few years have been a wild ride for diesel costs. Looking ahead, the official forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) project diesel prices will remain relatively moderate into 2026. In fact, the EIA’s August 2025 outlook forecasts average U.S. on-highway diesel at around $3.66 per gallon in 2025 and $3.47 in 2026, continuing a slight downward trend. That would be about a 5% drop in diesel prices in 2026 compared to 2025. Lower fuel costs, if they hold, could relieve some pressure on both carriers and shippers – fuel surcharges would be lower, and carriers’ operating expenses would dip a bit.

However, fuel is a notorious wildcard. All it takes is a geopolitical flare-up or OPEC production cut for oil prices to shoot up again. This will remain one of the more volatile predictions affecting the rate forecast for 2026. 

Sustainability and Regulations 

The push for greener, more sustainable trucking is accelerating. Governments and industry alike are aiming to reduce emissions from freight transport, which is bringing new regulations and changes that will shape trucking in 2026 and beyond. In California (always a bellwether for environmental rules), strict emissions regulations are already in play. As of 2023, all trucks operating in California needed to have engines 2010 or newer, effectively banning older, high-emission diesel rigs. Looking forward, California’s Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) rule mandates that truck manufacturers sell an increasing percentage of zero-emission trucks. That means truck makers – and by extension, fleets – are gradually shifting toward electric or hydrogen vehicles. 

What does this mean for 2026? In the near term, diesel rigs will still dominate the highways in 2026, but carriers are facing new costs and decisions to meet sustainability goals. Compliance with environmental regs might mean upgrading or retrofitting equipment, which raises capital costs. 

On the flip side, sustainability efforts can bring efficiencies. Many shippers are now prioritizing carriers with greener profiles or are willing to collaborate on load optimization to cut empty miles (which saves fuel and emissions). In 2026, we expect to see more “green” considerations in freight contracts. Shippers might ask carriers about their carbon footprint or offer incentives for sustainable practices. While these factors might not drastically alter base freight rates next year, they represent a subtle shift in the industry’s focus. 

E-Commerce Growth and Seasonal Demand Shifts

It’s impossible to talk about freight trends without mentioning e-commerce. The rise of online shopping has fundamentally changed demand patterns for trucking, and it’s still a major growth driver. Even as in-person retail rebounded after the pandemic, e-commerce has kept growing year over year. By mid-2025, U.S. retail e-commerce sales were about 5.3% higher than the previous year, outpacing the growth rate of total retail sales. E-commerce now accounts for roughly 15–16% of all retail sales, and that share keeps inching up. This trend is likely to continue into 2026, with forecasts showing high-single-digit annual growth in online retail.

What does e-commerce growth mean for freight rates? For one, it sustains demand for certain types of trucking services: last-mile delivery and parcel/LTL volumes, as well as regional distribution center (DC) replenishments. The more consumers buy from Amazon, Walmart.com, etc., the more trucks are needed to move goods from ports or factories to fulfillment centers, and from DCs to local sort centers or stores. This translates into steady freight demand even if other sectors (like heavy industrial or energy) are soft. 

In 2026, we anticipate e-commerce will keep freight flowing, especially in parcel hubs and major metro areas. Carriers who specialize in final-mile or who serve retailers’ warehouses may see volume growth. However, e-commerce also tends to create shorter length-of-haul shipments (since the supply chain is DC-centric and decentralized), which might mean more regional hauls versus long cross-country moves. More trips of shorter distances can tighten capacity in certain regions and timeframes.

Another effect of e-commerce is the pronounced seasonal spike it brings during the holidays. Peak season has always been “a thing” in trucking (e.g., the rush leading up to year-end holidays), but with online shopping, the volumes during November–December have become even more critical. Retail forecasts for holiday seasons remain positive.

Supply Chain Resilience and Nearshoring: Changing Freight Flows

If the pandemic taught supply chain managers anything, it’s the value of resilience. The disruptions of 2020–2022 (factory shutdowns, port backlogs, etc.) led many companies to rethink how and where they source and produce goods. Going into 2026, those lessons are actively reshaping freight patterns in North America. Two big themes here are higher inventory buffers and nearshoring of production – both of which affect trucking demand.

First, many businesses have moved from just-in-time to just-in-case inventory strategies. In plain terms, they’re keeping a bit more stock on hand to guard against shocks. By 2026, we expect companies to maintain somewhat higher baseline inventories than pre-pandemic, especially of critical components or high-demand items. This can mean more warehousing and redistribution moves. 

The bigger factor is nearshoring (and reshoring) of manufacturing. There’s a notable trend of companies bringing production closer to the U.S. – particularly shifting some operations from Asia to Mexico (or to the U.S. itself). This has been driven by a desire to reduce dependency on far-flung supply lines, avoid high tariffs, and cut transit times. 

For the North American trucking market, nearshoring is a big positive. More factories in Mexico mean more parts and finished goods moving by truck across the southern border into the U.S. Already, we’ve seen robust growth in freight traffic through border crossings in Texas, Arizona, and California. By 2026, this could accelerate further. Industries like automotive, appliances, and electronics are expanding production in Mexico. We’ll likely see sustained demand for dry van and flatbed capacity on northbound lanes from Mexico. 

Another aspect of resilience is multi-sourcing: companies contracting multiple suppliers (including domestic ones) for critical items. This can reduce reliance on a single country. In practice, a company might import 50% of a part from Asia and 50% from North America. The North American portion, again, boosts local trucking demand. Even for goods still imported from overseas, some importers have spread out their port usage (to avoid any one port’s congestion). We saw a shift back and forth: more cargo routed to East/Gulf coasts during West Coast labor troubles, then some shifting back. The net effect is a more balanced flow through various entry points, which keeps trucking volumes flowing in diverse lanes.

Infrastructure Investments and Road Congestion: The Road Ahead

Traffic jams – the bane of every trucker’s existence. Congestion on highways and at key choke points not only causes headaches, but it also costs real money in lost time and extra fuel. The U.S. freight network has long suffered from chronic bottlenecks. The positive news is that help is (slowly) on the way: in 2021, the U.S. passed a massive Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), which by 2025–2026 is starting to fund many road and bridge projects around the country. The question is, how quickly will this translate into smoother rides, and what does it mean for freight rates?

From a freight rates perspective, infrastructure and congestion play a subtle role. In a severely congested market, trucking supply is effectively constrained (trucks get less done, so the functional capacity is lower, pushing rates up). If we can alleviate congestion, we add functional capacity and reduce waste – that can ease upward pressure on rates. However, given a short timeline, 2026 might only see marginal improvements. It’s more of a long game: by late this decade, we’ll hopefully see tangible nationwide benefits. Carriers will also save on fuel and maintenance if stop-and-go traffic is reduced. Those savings could be passed on, or at least help carriers’ profitability without needing to hike rates as much.

In short, infrastructure investment is the unsung hero in the background of freight forecasting. For 2026, expect some localized improvements (and some construction slowdowns). Truckers might notice, for example, a smoother ride through a corridor that was formerly jammed, or slightly faster port turnarounds. Every little bit helps. Over time, continued investment should help contain transportation costs and improve reliability – which is a win for everyone: carriers, shippers, and the economy as a whole.

Conclusion: A Look Toward 2026 – Cautious Optimism for Rates

So, what’s the final verdict on North American trucking rates in 2026? In a nutshell, we’re looking at a cautiously optimistic scenario for carriers (and a heads-up for shippers). The freight market’s cycle is turning upward after a prolonged downturn. 

By 2026, the expectation is for a more balanced market where demand at least matches capacity, if not slightly exceeds it, during busy periods. That means freight rates should be on a gentle rise compared to recent years. We’re not predicting anything crazy – most forecasts call for low-single-digit percentage increases in 2026 contract rates on average. But after the rate declines of 2023–24, even a modest uptick will feel like relief to trucking companies.

Shippers, for their part, might need to adjust from the buyer’s market mentality. The super cheap spot rates of the downturn have already bottomed out, and 2026 budgets should bake in some increases. It won’t likely be an extreme spike, but even a few percent increase (plus higher fuel surcharges if fuel creeps up) is worth planning for. On the flip side, a tighter market also usually means better service levels – carriers will have more leverage but also more incentive to prioritize service for strategic customers, and shippers may deepen relationships with core carriers.

For carriers, 2026 could be the year they regain a bit of pricing power. With capacity rationalizing and costs still rising (driver wages, insurance, etc.), carriers will justifiably seek rate increases. However, the increases may barely keep pace with inflation, so it’s not a windfall but rather stopping the bleeding. The key for carriers will be cost control and efficiency – using tech and data (hello, TrueNorth) to optimize operations can ensure those rate gains translate to actual profit. The specter of driver shortages also means carriers will be investing in recruiting and retaining drivers, which might necessitate rate support.

Of course, we have to add the perennial asterisk: barring a recession. The forecasts we discussed assume no major economic crash. If something derails the economy in 2025 or 2026 (for example, a financial crisis, geopolitical conflict escalation, etc.), all bets are off, and freight volumes could drop, hurting rates. But many experts currently see a decent probability that we’ll avoid a hard recession, and instead get a continued slow growth environment. In that case, by 2026, freight should benefit from the tail end of the inventory correction, a stabilizing consumer sector, and perhaps even a mini industrial rebound if manufacturing picks up from its slump. There’s even speculation that if tariffs or trade tensions ease, it could add upside to freight volumes (though so far, 2025 saw new tariffs cause some volatility).

All told, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of gradual improvement in the trucking world. It won’t be without challenges (is it ever?), but the outlook is far less cloudy than it was a short while ago. Here’s to hoping 2026 brings a smooth ride and profitable hauls for everyone in the North American freight community!